IMF Forecast: Taiwan's Per Capita GDP Expected to Surpass South Korea and Japan Next Year

According to the latest "World Economic Outlook" report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Taiwan's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to surpass that of South Korea and Japan next year.

In the report published on the 22nd, the IMF predicts that Taiwan's per capita GDP will reach $36,319 by 2025, which is higher than that of South Korea ($35,880) and Japan ($35,653) in the same year.

The IMF foresees that Taiwan will continue to exceed South Korea and Japan in per capita GDP until 2029. However, it is expected that all three countries will enter the '40,000 USD' club in terms of per capita GDP at the same time in 2029.

Korea's Economic Growth Forecast Downward, Taiwan to Maintain Stable Growth

The IMF anticipates that South Korea's real GDP growth rate will remain in the 1% range for the next few years. It predicts a growth rate of 1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027, followed by stagnation at 2.1% in 2028, 1.9% in 2029, and 1.8% in 2030.

In contrast, Taiwan is expected to maintain a stable growth rate in the 2% range, starting with 2.9% in 2025, followed by 2.5% in 2026, 2.4% in 2027, 2.3% in 2028, 2.2% in 2029, and 2.1% in 2030.

Japan is projected to experience even lower growth rates, with a growth of 0.6% for four consecutive years from this year until 2028, followed by a decrease to 0.5% in 2029 and 2030.

Korean Economic Outlook Downgraded, Entry into the 40,000 USD Club Delayed by Two Years

The IMF has significantly lowered its growth expectations for the South Korean economy compared to last October.

In the report released on October 22 of last year, it was forecasted that South Korea's per capita GDP would surpass $40,000 by reaching $37,675 in 2025 and $39,321 in 2026, before hitting $40,131 in 2027.

However, the latest forecast postpones South Korea's entry into the $40,000 milestone to 2029, delaying it by two years.

This is likely due to increased political uncertainty resulting from the former president's declaration of martial law, delayed domestic recovery, rising exchange rates, and clear signs of entrenched low growth. The symbolically significant $40,000 milestone seems to be getting further away.

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