Results of the Poll Conducted After the First Debate

In a recent poll conducted after the first debate, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, led with 50.6%, surpassing Kim Moon-soo, the People Power Party candidate, who garnered 39.3%.

On the 20th, Newsis reported the results of a survey commissioned to the polling agency Ace Research, which surveyed 1,004 eligible voters aged 18 and older nationwide over two days, from the 18th to the 19th.

According to the poll results, Lee Jae-myung received 50.6% support, while Kim Moon-soo received 39.3%. Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party obtained 6.3% support. Other candidates received 1.1%, those with 'no preferred candidate' accounted for 1.8%, and 'don't know' was at 0.9%.

Notably in this survey, there was a change in the gap between the two leading candidates. In a previous head-to-head poll conducted on the 6th and 7th, Lee Jae-myung had 54.9% and Kim Moon-soo had 37.0%. However, in this survey, Lee Jae-myung's support dropped by 4.3 percentage points, while Kim Moon-soo's rose by 2.3 percentage points, narrowing the gap from 17.9 percentage points to 11.3 percentage points.

Lee Jae-myung received strong support from 97.2% of Democratic Party supporters and 85.4% from the progressive base. Kim Moon-soo secured 94.0% support from People Power Party supporters and 70.1% from the conservative base. Lee Jun-seok garnered 89.6% among supporters of the Reform Party.

Among moderates, Lee Jae-myung had the highest support at 54.8%, followed by Kim Moon-soo at 31.6% and Lee Jun-seok at 9.9%.

Regionally, Lee Jae-myung was dominant in Gwangju and Jeolla (71.3%) and Incheon and Gyeonggi (50.8%). Kim Moon-soo showed strength in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (52.4%) and Gangwon and Jeju (53.7%).

When asked about their likelihood of winning, Lee Jae-myung was at 57.3%, Kim Moon-soo at 36.0%, and Lee Jun-seok at 3.2%.

This survey was conducted via 100% wireless RDD (Random Digit Dialing) automated response (ARS) method, with a response rate of 2.8%. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a confidence level of 95%. For more detailed information about the poll, please visit the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

Image source: News1