Upcoming Presidential Election Three-Way Race, Candidate Lee Jae-myung Surpasses 50% Approval Rating

According to a survey conducted by Realmeter at the request of Energy Economy Newspaper from October 7 to 9 on 1,508 eligible voters aged 18 and older nationwide, candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party received 52.1% support in the competitive 'three-way race' against Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party. This marks a 5.5 percentage point increase from the previous survey, which recorded 46.6%.

Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party received 31.1% (up from 27.8%), a 3.3 percentage point rise, while Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party saw his approval rating drop to 6.3% (from 7.5%), a decline of 1.2 percentage points.

The gap between candidates Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo has widened to 21.0 percentage points compared to the previous week's 18.8 percentage points. Candidate Lee Jun-seok's expectation of a rebound appears to be fading.

Analysis of Support Preferences by Voter Demographics

By support tendency, 96.6% of Democratic Party supporters and 84.7% of progressive supporters backed Lee Jae-myung, while 73.9% of People Power Party supporters and 58.8% of conservative supporters favored Kim Moon-soo. Notably, among centrist voters, Lee Jae-myung's support rate was 54.9%, more than double that of Kim Moon-soo (24.3%).

In a scenario where Han Duck-soo of the People Power Party runs as an independent and as the sole candidate of the conservative coalition, candidate Lee Jae-myung still holds the lead with 51.7%, followed by Han Duck-soo at 30.5% and Lee Jun-seok at 5.8%.

In a multi-candidate race where Han Duck-soo runs as an independent, the results recorded were Lee Jae-myung 51.6%, Kim Moon-soo 20.8%, Lee Jun-seok 4.5%, and Han Duck-soo 17.5%.

This survey was conducted before the controversy surrounding candidate Han Duck-soo's entry into the People Power Party and the candidate replacement debate, indicating that support levels may fluctuate depending on future political developments.

Preference for Regime Change Prevails, Even Among the Undecided Voters

In a survey on the preferred ruling force for the upcoming presidential election, 55.8% responded that they want a regime change through 'the opposition parties like the Democratic Party', which is higher than the 39.2% favoring 'the ruling party's extension of power'.

Compared to the previous survey, the support for regime change has increased by 4.3 percentage points, while the preference for maintaining the regime has decreased by 3.6 percentage points.

Among supporters of political parties, 92.0% of People Power Party supporters indicated a desire for regime extension, while 98.5% of Democratic Party supporters expressed a desire for regime change. Notably, even among undecided voters, there is a preference for regime change (40.8%) over regime extension (29.7%), reflecting considerable dissatisfaction with the current government.

This survey was conducted through automated calls (100%), with a response rate of 6.7%. The margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. More detailed information can be found on the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission's website.

Image sources: Candidate Lee Jae-myung / News1, Candidate Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party / News1