Yoon Seok-yeol's Impeachment Boosts Lee Jae-myung's Favorability in Hypothetical Head-to-Head Matchups

Following the impeachment of former President Yoon Seok-yeol on the 4th, an emergency opinion poll revealed a significant surge in support for Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea.

In particular, it has been shown that he maintains an overwhelming lead, achieving over 50% support in all hypothetical head-to-head matchups against candidates from the conservative camp.

According to the emergency opinion poll conducted by the Korea Gallup at the request of the Seoul Economic Daily from April 4 to 5, involving 1,012 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide, Lee secured more than 50% support in every matchup against conservative candidates.

In a head-to-head matchup with Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, Lee received 53% while Kim garnered 35%. In a matchup with Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Lee had 51% compared to Oh's 37%.

In a contest against former People's Power leader Han Dong-hoon, Lee achieved 52% against Han's 32%, revealing a 20 percentage point gap. Similarly, in a matchup against Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, Lee led with 52% to Hong's 38%, maintaining a lead beyond the margin of error against all conservative candidates.

Lee Secures Centrist Support… Influence of Judicial Risk Resolution and Growing Calls for Change in Government

Lee's dominance is evidently pronounced among centrist voters as well.

Over 55% of respondents identifying as centrists expressed a preference for Lee.

In the matchup with Minister Kim Moon-soo, 57% of centrist voters supported Lee, while 56% supported him against Mayor Oh Se-hoon, 56% against former leader Han Dong-hoon, and 55% against Mayor Hong Joon-pyo.

These results are interpreted as a consequence of Lee's judicial risk being alleviated following his acquittal in the second trial for violating the Public Official Election Act, as well as the growing sentiment for a change in government due to former President Yoon's impeachment.

Indeed, just prior to the impeachment of Yoon, Lee's approval rating stood at 34%, but soared to 40% immediately after the impeachment, marking a 6 percentage point increase.

People's Power Needs to Secure Non-Aligned Voters… 56% Favor the Change of Government

With less than 60 days remaining until the early election, there are calls for the People's Power party to adopt a strategy focused on absorbing as many non-aligned voters as possible. In this poll, over 10% of non-aligned voters refrained from answering, stating “none” or “don’t know” or declining to respond.

In the matchup with Mayor Hong, 11% of non-aligned voters were undecided, while it was 12% in the cases against Minister Kim and Mayor Oh, and the undecided reached nearly 15% against former leader Han.

Meanwhile, in a survey regarding the next presidential election results, responses favoring “change in government” stood at 56%, while those favoring “maintenance of government” accounted for 35%.

The sentiment for "change in government" prevailed in nearly all demographics, excluding those aged 70 and above, along with groups in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province (TK), housewives, and the unemployed/retired/other classifications.

Notably, even among voters in their 60s, the response for "change in government" was 49%, narrowly surpassing “extension of government” (45%) within the margin of error. Additionally, in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province (PK)—a significant base for conservative parties—"change in government" (48%) was also ahead of “extension of government” (42%).

In a party support survey, the Democratic Party stood at 44%, while People’s Power was at 33%, resulting in an 11 percentage point gap that is outside the margin of error.

Meanwhile, the Justice Reform Party was recorded at 4%, the Reform Party at 2%, and the “non-affiliated” category, which includes those without a preferred party or who declined to respond, accounted for 14%.

The poll's margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 9.5%. Detailed information can be checked on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

Image source: News1, Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo / News1, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, attending the appellate trial on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act at the Seoul High Court on March 26, 2025 / News1 (Photo joint coverage team), Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo / News1.