The moderate public sentiment is leaning towards Lee Jae-myung

A recent poll revealed that nearly half (47%) of moderate voters have identified Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, as their choice for the next president. In contrast, Han Duck-soo, the acting Prime Minister who has recently moved more seriously towards entering the presidential race, was recorded at just over 10%.

According to a nationwide survey conducted by Embrain Public, KSTAT Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research from September 28 to 30 among 1,000 adults aged 18 and older, Lee recorded a support rate of 47% among the moderate base. This marks a 2 percentage point increase from the previous week.

Han is included in this survey for the first time, garnering a support rate of 10%. Likewise, People Power Party candidate Han Dong-hoon also received 10%, while candidate Kim Moon-soo received 4%, and candidate Lee Jun-seok from the Reform Party received just 2%.

In a suitability survey for the next president targeting all voters, Lee far surpassed Han, recording 42% compared to Han's 13%.

Lee Jae-myung leads in a three-way contest… Han Duck-soo is the only one to break 30%

In a hypothetical three-way race, Lee Jae-myung’s advantage was even more pronounced. Particularly in the scenario that included Han, support for Lee was stronger among moderate voters.

In a match-up between Lee Jae-myung, Kim Moon-soo, and Lee Jun-seok, the breakdown was 46%, 25%, and 8% respectively. Among moderate voters, Lee garnered over half at 51%. In the competition between Lee Jae-myung, Han Dong-hoon, and Lee Jun-seok, Lee achieved 45%, while Han received 24%, and Lee Jun-seok managed just 6%. Among moderates, Lee secured 50%, Han received 24%, and Lee Jun-seok garnered 9%.

The most noteworthy aspect was the outcome of the three-way contest between Lee Jae-myung, Han Duck-soo, and Lee Jun-seok. Lee received 46%, Han recorded 31%, and Lee Jun-seok was at 6%. Although Han ranked second, surpassing 30% was a notable initial result.

However, among moderate voters, Lee garnered the highest support at 52%. The gap in support between Han and Lee remained substantial, and Lee Jun-seok was limited to 7%.

Notably, in the scenario including Han, the support rate for Lee Jun-seok among moderates significantly decreased, indicating potential fragmentation of votes for the conservative bloc in the future.

The key to "conservative unification"… Jeong Dae-cheol says "a big tent is needed"

Given these survey results, the need for unification among conservative candidates is being discussed again in political circles. Jeong Dae-cheol, the Chairman of the Republic of Korea Constitutional Association, mentioned in a KBS radio interview, "It is still uncertain whether Han will run without a party affiliation or under a party, but it is necessary to present a united front with the People Power Party."

He added, "Only then can we confront the Democratic Party candidates head-on."

Han Duck-soo is expected to officially announce his resignation as soon as today and initiate preparations for his presidential candidacy. Attention is now on how well Han, transitioning from "the judge" to "the candidate," can appeal to both moderate and conservative voters.

This NBS survey was conducted using a telephone interview method utilizing virtual mobile numbers (100%), with a response rate of 19.3%. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. Detailed survey information can be found on the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

Image source: Lee Jae-myung, Democratic Party presidential candidate / News1, News1