Korean Presidential Election Attracts Hot Interest in Overseas Betting Market

Global betting site 'Polymarket' is displaying significant interest in the upcoming South Korean presidential election set for June 3.

As of the 9th, the amount of money bet on this election worldwide has surpassed approximately $89.58 million (about 125.5 billion KRW).

In particular, candidate Lee Jae-myung's probability of winning has surpassed 90%, indicating an overwhelming advantage. Candidate Kim Moon-soo is at 4%, while Han Deok-soo and Lee Jun-seok are trailing at 3% each.

From the beginning, candidate Lee Jae-myung was recorded with a high probability of winning on Polymarket; however, after the Supreme Court's remand, it temporarily declined. Nonetheless, when the High Court postponed the trial to after the election on the 7th, the probability climbed from 81% in the morning to 87% in the afternoon, reflecting the political situation in real time.

Increase in Polymarket Betting Participation in South Korea…Controversy Over Illegality

Polymarket is a platform that allows betting on various global issues, with the South Korean presidential election ranking at the forefront in the political sector.

On Polymarket, USDC, a dollar-based stablecoin, is used as the trading currency. Users can participate in betting by purchasing USDC from domestic cryptocurrency exchanges and then transferring it to Polymarket via the Ethereum wallet MetaMask.

There is an increasing number of people betting on this platform in South Korea, likely because it allows voters to grasp their domestic political situation more accurately.

Some express high interest in predictive markets like Polymarket, suggesting they can serve as indicators of election outcomes in a different way than opinion polls. Indeed, overseas media are increasingly citing these betting market probabilities.

However, there are also moral concerns and legal issues regarding betting on a national-level event like the presidential election.

Under current laws, utilizing an unlicensed betting site is fundamentally subject to regulation as illegal gambling based on the Criminal Law, the Gaming Industry Act, and the Sports Promotion Act. If caught as a user, individuals could face punishment under the gambling law, and any profits derived from it could also be subject to confiscation.

Meanwhile, the Financial Supervisory Service has responded to inquiries regarding Polymarket's legality, stating, "There is no prohibition on domestic users using overseas exchanges, but there is a possibility of connecting to illegal activities such as gambling."

Image Source: Polymarket website (as of 3:30 PM on the 9th), Lee Jae-myung, Democratic Party presidential candidate / News1