"Minimal Economic Impact" vs "Guarantee of Citizens' Right to Rest"

With October 10 designated as a temporary holiday, there's growing interest in whether the "10-Day Golden Holiday" will become a reality.

However, within the government, there are doubts regarding the long holiday's significant benefit to domestic consumption. On the other hand, the possibility of designation remains based on the guarantee of citizens' right to rest.

Government Analysis: "Economic Effects Are Minimal"

According to government officials on the 18th, there is a prevailing opinion formed based on past statistics that "the economic revitalization effect of designating the temporary holiday on October 10 is not clear."

During both the Moon Jae-in administration and the Yoon Seok-youl administration, temporary holidays have been designated during bridge holidays, but there have been internal criticisms that this leads more to an increase in overseas travel rather than boosting domestic consumption.

On January 27 of this year, a temporary holiday was designated to create a "6-day holiday," but it fell short of expectations. According to a report titled "Pros and Cons of Designating Temporary Holidays" published by the National Assembly Research Service in June, the number of overseas tourists in January was approximately 2.97 million, an increase of 9.5% compared to the previous month and a rise of 7.3% year-on-year; however, domestic tourism spending was limited to 3 trillion won, reflecting a decrease.

The report concluded, "The hypothesis that a long holiday leads to a revitalization of domestic consumption is weakly convincing." The common belief that "when holidays are long, everyone goes abroad" has been statistically substantiated.

Concerns About Production and Export Disruptions Due to Reduced Working Days

Another concern for the government is that increasing holidays would reduce working days. If October 10 is designated as a temporary holiday, there will only be 16 working days in October, which is a reduction of 6 days compared to the same month last year.

With an additional temporary holiday in January, the working days decreased, leading to an export scale of 49.1 billion dollars, a decrease of 10.2% compared to the previous year. Production across all industries also saw a reduction of 1.6% from the previous month and 3.8% year-on-year. Such figures support the government's negative outlook.

There are concerns that efforts to stimulate domestic consumption may inadvertently result in losses in trade.

Possibility of Link Between Citizens' Right to Rest and Domestic Measures

Nonetheless, the possibility of designation remains. Every time the government has deliberated on temporary holidays, they have emphasized not only "boosting domestic travel and consumption" but also "guaranteeing citizens' right to rest."

Particularly, as President Lee Jae-myung directed on the 14th that "preemptive measures are to be prepared for revitalizing domestic consumption during the long Chuseok holiday in October," there is speculation that temporary holidays may be reconsidered in conjunction with domestic measures such as large-scale discount events or toll exemptions on highways.

However, since earlier comments from Ministry of Economy and Finance officials stated that they are "currently reviewing the matter regarding the temporary holiday," it is widely predicted that the government may not exert strong pressure for its designation.

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