Change of Power Theory, Party Approval Ratings Favoring the Democratic Party…58.4% Support for Yoon Seok-yeol's Resignation from the People Power Party

In the first public opinion poll released since the official election campaign for the 21st presidential election began, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, emerged ahead of People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo, exceeding the margin of error. Lee's approval rating approached 50%, which has been evaluated as a successful early lead in the primary race.

According to a survey conducted by Hangil Research, commissioned by Global Economic from November 11-12, involving 1,513 voters aged 18 and older nationwide, the results published on the 13th showed that Lee Jae-myung's approval rating stood at 49.5%. Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party recorded 38.2%.

The gap between Lee and Kim was 11.3 percentage points, surpassing the poll's margin of error (±2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Other candidates garnered 1.5%, 3.1% of respondents had no preferred candidate, and 1.9% were unsure.

Public Opinion on Change of Power Favors the Democratic Party…Party Landscape Favors the Democratic Party

When asked about the direction of changing the government, public opinion leaned towards the Democratic Party. 51.1% of respondents answered that "it is better for the change of power to be centered around the Democratic Party," while only 38.3% responded that "the government should be maintained by the People Power Party."

Party approval ratings also showed the Democratic Party, supporting Lee Jae-myung, leading. The Democratic Party recorded 42.5%, while the People Power Party was at 36.8%. The Reform Party had 3.9%, the Justice Reform Party had 2.2%, the Progressive Party had 1.0%, and other parties accounted for 2.6%. 9.9% of respondents identified as non-partisan.

This survey also included questions regarding public perception of former President Yoon Seok-yeol's resignation from the People Power Party. The response affirming "I agree with the resignation" was 58.4%, significantly over half, while 30.3% disagreed.

The Election Landscape Solidifying into an 'Either-or Contest'…The Influence of Lee Jun-seok is 'Minimal' Compared to Expectations

The results of this survey hold significance as the first indicator of the initial flow of public opinion since the start of the campaign. Particularly, the approval rating approaching a majority for Lee Jae-myung suggests rapid consolidation within his camp.

In contrast, candidate Kim Moon-soo appears to be struggling to expand his support base amid the aftershocks of former President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment and internal party divisions.

Expectations were rife that Lee Jun-seok, a candidate of the Reform Party, would benefit from the discord in the candidate selection process of the People Power Party, but he has shown a minimal presence. There are early forecasts indicating that, considering the margin of error, it may be difficult for him to act as a decisive factor.

Meanwhile, this survey was conducted using a mobile ARS (automatic response) method, with a response rate of 6.4%. Detailed information can be found on the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.

Image Source: On the morning of the 13th, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, appeals for support at the Gumi Station Square in Gyeongbuk, a representative challenging area. 2025.5.13/News1 (Joint Coverage). On the first day of the official election campaign for the 21st presidential election on the 12th, Kim Moon-soo, the People Power Party's presidential candidate, appeals for support at the Seomun Market in Daegu. / News1